Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $82,040 at 10 May 2026, 23:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,813 at 11 May 2026, 23:00 UTC.
3. r = 81813.03 / 82040.32 − 1 = -0.3%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology