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Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 10 May 2026, 16:00 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

Most traders still treat this like another bullish consolidation. But all previous bullish setups since 2022 were falling wedges. This time, Bitcoin is printing a rising wedge. Different pattern. Different probabilities. That’s why I’m watching $75K very closely here. https://t.co/W1bt0QdfrC

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,357 at 10 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,552 at 11 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 81551.99 / 81357.27 − 1 = +0.2%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -0.2% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: inferred
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “This time, Bitcoin is printing a rising wedge.”
Confidence: 88%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

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