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Leaderboard / @TedPillows / 2053388026336747825:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 10 May 2026, 08:13 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 14:36 UTC

Te

Ted

@TedPillows

Panic before a $BTC slingshot to $250,000. The grand finale is coming.

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,821 at 10 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,743 at 11 May 2026, 09:00 UTC.
r = 80743.44 / 80821.47 − 1 = -0.1%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -0.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Panic before a $BTC slingshot to $250,000.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$80,821

Evaluation price

$80,743

Move

-0.1%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

11 Nov 2026, 05:16 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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