Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $80,524 at 9 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $81,408 at 10 May 2026, 16:00 UTC.
3. r = 81408.11 / 80523.96 − 1 = +1.1%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = -1.1% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology