Prediction evidence

In reply to · 9 May 2026, 00:03 UTC · context given to the AI

Key thoughts on $BTC ’s current position: Eventually, cycles are going to shift, and we’re already starting to see that through volatility suppression. We’re not seeing the same parabolic expansions we had in previous cycles, and the euphoric blow off tops just aren’t as extreme anymore. Everything looks more muted and controlled compared to what we’ve seen historically. Because of that, it also makes sense that the downside changes too. Bottoms are likely going to be less violent going forward, fewer deep capitulation wicks and more structured, expected drawdowns rather than sudden crash style moves. If you look at MVRV pricing bands, each cycle has interacted with them in some way, but this cycle hasn’t really pushed into the higher extremes yet. Even in the current bearish phase, we haven’t fully stretched into those upper bands. That suggests we don’t necessarily need to reach the same overheated “purple/green” zones this time around, maybe just get closer to them, which is roughly what we’ve done. Overall, this doesn’t look like a period for being aggressively bearish. I already mentioned around 65K that it was a good area to start accumulating spot, and that view still holds. What we’re more likely in now is an extended accumulation range (the “blue zone”), where we chop around, see additional dips to accumulate, and build structure over time before any real expansion higher. Spending a similar amount of time accumulating at the lows as in previous cycles, just without the same depth on the downside. So in short, it’s probably not a time to get overly excited or overly bearish, more likely a longer ranging phase with opportunities to accumulate before the bull market begins.