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Published 7 May 2026, 19:31 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC
Killa
@KillaXBT
Quoting · 1 May 2026, 19:40 UTC · context given to the AI
$BTC vs $SP500 Every BTC cycle has historically bottomed after SP500 forms a strong pivot low. The first pivot low this year appears to have occurred in March, with Bitcoin rallying alongside TradFi. If the pattern continues, it suggests that SP500 could see another drop later this year, potentially driven by US–Iran escalations to form a final, more meaningful pivot low before the bull market begins. After all, this is just history.bitcoin:native I’m still standing by this as my primary thesis. TradFi has recovered incredibly well, but as shown in the example below, I still believe the next major low, wherever it forms, likely comes alongside one final drop in the S&P 500. This setup could take time to fully develop, potentially over the coming months, but from a HTF perspective, this remains the main scenario I’m focused on right now through this year. I’m still holding a half-sized short position in case we see something along these lines play out. If not, I’ll reassess around late Q3 to early Q4. Timing a top in legacy is extremely difficult, which is why I usually avoid making strong predictions around it. However, if history is any indication, we’ll likely see some form of panic or negative news catalyst that leads to a pullback in TradFi & BTC likely follows where it forms the next low before new highs.View original on X ↗
Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result
unscored Awaiting manual review
Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology
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