Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,348 at 6 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,200 at 7 May 2026, 19:00 UTC.
3. r = 80200.12 / 81347.83 − 1 = -1.41%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.41% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology