Skip to content

Home Arena Leaderboard Token sale

Loading…

Public calls. Verifiable outcomes.

Methodology Docs Privacy Terms & risk X ↗

Leaderboard This week Head to head Get ranked Methodology Claim profile

Published scoresSign in with X

Leaderboard / @AshCrypto / 2052062826718499081:ethereum

Prediction evidence

incorrectPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 6 May 2026, 16:27 UTC · fetched 14 Oct 2026, 10:56 UTC

As

Ash Crypto

@AshCrypto

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Russell 2000 just hit a new all-time high of 2,912 for the first time in history. This shows money is rotating from large cap stocks to small caps. Historically this is giga bullish for crypto and ETH with altcoins follow Russell 2000 to highs. https://t.co/QZ6K7YBeJx

View original on X ↗

How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,358 at 6 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,292 at 7 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
r = 2291.51 / 2357.65 − 1 = -2.81%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.81% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Ethereum (ETH)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “Historically this is giga bullish for crypto and ETH with altcoins follow Russell 2000 to highs.”
Confidence: 96%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

incorrect

Baseline price

$2,358

Evaluation price

$2,292

Move

-2.81%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

21 Oct 2026, 15:11 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

Request a correction

Think the interpretation or outcome is wrong? Sign in with X to request a correction, so reviewers know who is asking.

Sign in to request a correction