Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,515 at 6 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,154 at 7 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
3. r = 80153.5 / 81514.84 − 1 = -1.7%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology