Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 6 May 2026, 14:25 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:57 UTC

Chase

@Crypto_Chase

Quoting · 6 May 2026, 11:20 UTC · context given to the AI

$BTC capital gains fund $STRC credit dividends.

When you've been underwater for a while and finally get back into profit. Truth is he can't sell much though. $BTC finally seeing some relative strength after stock market went up 20% in a month. If things turn a bit, BTC won't be able to withstand equity pullback + Saylor sells. https://t.co/NSSfk4GLr5

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,515 at 6 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $80,154 at 7 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
r = 80153.5 / 81514.84 − 1 = -1.7%
Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +1.7% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▼ Bearish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “$BTC finally seeing some relative strength after stock market went up 20% in a month.”
Confidence: 100%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

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Prediction evidence

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