Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first ETH price at or after publication, $2,377 at 6 May 2026, 04:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $2,322 at 7 May 2026, 04:00 UTC.
3. r = 2321.93 / 2376.6 − 1 = -2.3%
4. Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = -2.3% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → incorrect

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology