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Leaderboard / @MerlijnTrader / 2051621954990510120:bitcoin

Prediction evidence

correctPolicy v1.0

Source post

Published 5 May 2026, 11:16 UTC · fetched 3 Nov 2026, 10:58 UTC

Me

Merlijn The Trader

@MerlijnTrader

@iamchrissie07 The structural setup makes it very hard to bet against Bitcoin. 📈

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How this was scored

Deterministic: the same prices and policy always give the same result

Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $81,026 at 5 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $82,521 at 6 May 2026, 12:00 UTC.
r = 82520.75 / 81026.16 − 1 = +1.8%
Direction d = +1 (bullish), so d × r = +1.8% (neutral only if the price is unchanged) → correct

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology

AI interpretation

Uses only text available at publication time

Asset: Bitcoin (BTC)
Direction: ▲ Bullish
Intent: explicit
Horizon: 24 hours (default, none stated)
Evidence span: “@iamchrissie07 The structural setup makes it very hard to bet against Bitcoin.”
Confidence: 98%
Review state: auto accepted
Model / prompt: gpt-6-luna+decisions · decisions-v3

Outcome record

Status

correct

Baseline price

$81,026

Evaluation price

$82,521

Move

+1.8%

Neutral threshold

Unchanged price only

Price provider

coinbase

Evaluated at

11 Nov 2026, 04:16 UTC

Policy version

v1.0

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