Prediction evidence

1. Baseline: first BTC price at or after publication, $78,682 at 3 May 2026, 00:00 UTC.
2. Evaluation: price at the end of the 24 hours horizon, $78,559 at 4 May 2026, 00:00 UTC.
3. r = 78558.88 / 78682.31 − 1 = -0.16%
4. Direction d = −1 (bearish), so d × r = +0.16% against a neutral band of ±1.00% → neutral

Only the end-of-horizon price counts. A brief move followed by a reversal is not a success. Read the methodology